The Fed’s Favorite Inflation Measure Sped Up in October

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure sped up in October, a development that is likely to keep central bankers wary as they contemplate the path ahead for interest rates.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index climbed 2.3 percent from a year earlier, quicker than 2.1 percent in September, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

After stripping out volatile food and fuel costs to get a better sense of the underlying trend in prices, a “core” index climbed 2.8 percent from a year earlier. That was up from 2.7 percent previously.

And looking at how much prices climbed over just the past month, the overall index rose 0.2 percent from September, and the core index increased 0.3 percent. Both changes were in line with their previous readings and with economist expectations. Policymakers sometimes look at monthly price changes to get an up-to-date sense of how inflation is evolving.

The upshot from the report is that inflation is proving sticky after months of steady progress. Price increases remain much cooler than they were at their peak in 2022, which topped out at about 7 percent for the overall index. But they remain slightly faster than the 2 percent pace that the Fed targets.

“It emphasizes a reality about the inflation data, which is that inflation progress has stalled,” said Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.