2024 N.F.L. Playoff Picture: Each Team’s Path to the Postseason
The Upshot’s 2024 N.F.L. playoff simulator. See all teamsRead the methodology, or
2024 N.F.L. Playoff Picture:
Each Team’s Path to the Postseason
| Div. | Team | Record | Change in playoffs, last 5 weeks |
Make playoffs |
Win division |
Round 1 bye |
Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC East |
Bills | 9-2 | >99% | >99% | 41% | 15% | |
| AFC East |
Dolphins | 5-6 | 34% | <1% | 0% | 1% | |
| AFC East |
Jets | 3-8 | <1% | <1% | 0% | <1% | |
| AFC East |
Patriots | 3-9 | <1% | 0% | 0% | <1% | |
| AFC North |
Ravens | 8-4 | 99% | 67% | 2% | 11% | |
| AFC North |
Steelers | 8-3 | 90% | 33% | 2% | 2% | |
| AFC North |
Bengals | 4-7 | 11% | <1% | 0% | <1% | |
| AFC North |
Browns | 3-8 | <1% | <1% | 0% | <1% | |
| AFC South |
Texans | 7-5 | 92% | 91% | <1% | 3% | |
| AFC South |
Colts | 5-7 | 19% | 6% | 0% | <1% | |
| AFC South |
Titans | 3-8 | 2% | 2% | 0% | <1% | |
| AFC South |
Jaguars | 2-9 | 1% | <1% | 0% | <1% | |
| AFC West |
Chiefs | 10-1 | >99% | 96% | 55% | 12% | |
| AFC West |
Chargers | 7-4 | 89% | 4% | <1% | 2% | |
| AFC West |
Broncos | 7-5 | 62% | <1% | <1% | 1% | |
| AFC West |
Raiders | 2-9 | <1% | 0% | 0% | <1% | |
| NFC East |
Eagles | 9-2 | >99% | 98% | 28% | 15% | |
| NFC East |
Commanders | 7-5 | 74% | 2% | <1% | 1% | |
| NFC East |
Cowboys | 4-7 | 1% | <1% | 0% | <1% | |
| NFC East |
Giants | 2-9 | <1% | 0% | 0% | <1% | |
| NFC North |
Lions | 10-1 | >99% | 86% | 65% | 21% | |
| NFC North |
Vikings | 9-2 | 97% | 10% | 5% | 4% | |
| NFC North |
Packers | 8-3 | 95% | 4% | 1% | 6% | |
| NFC North |
Bears | 4-7 | <1% | 0% | 0% | <1% | |
| NFC South |
Falcons | 6-5 | 75% | 72% | <1% | 1% | |
| NFC South |
Bucs | 5-6 | 43% | 27% | 0% | 1% | |
| NFC South |
Saints | 4-7 | 3% | 1% | 0% | <1% | |
| NFC South |
Panthers | 3-8 | <1% | <1% | 0% | <1% | |
| NFC West |
Cardinals | 6-5 | 55% | 51% | <1% | 2% | |
| NFC West |
Seahawks | 6-5 | 35% | 30% | <1% | 1% | |
| NFC West |
Rams | 5-6 | 16% | 15% | 0% | <1% | |
| NFC West |
49ers | 5-6 | 6% | 4% | 0% | <1% |
The N.F.L. Playoff Picture, Team by Team
The Buffalo Bills (9-2) had a bye last week. Their chances of making the playoffs stayed at greater than 99 percent. A win next week would clinch a playoff berth.
The Miami Dolphins (5-6) beat the New England Patriots on Sunday, increasing their chances of making the playoffs to 34 percent.
The New York Jets (3-8) had a bye last week. Their chances of making the playoffs stayed at less than 1 percent.
The New England Patriots (3-9) lost to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained less than 1 percent. They are on the cusp of being eliminated from playoff contention.
The Baltimore Ravens (8-4) beat the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday, raising their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 99 percent.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) lost to the Cleveland Browns on Thursday, lowering their chances of making the playoffs to 90 percent.
The Cincinnati Bengals (4-7) had a bye last week. Their chances of making the playoffs stayed at 11 percent.
The Cleveland Browns (3-8) beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained less than 1 percent.
The Houston Texans (7-5) lost to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs to 92 percent.
The Indianapolis Colts (5-7) lost to the Detroit Lions on Sunday, lowering their chances of making the playoffs to 19 percent.
The Tennessee Titans (3-8) beat the Houston Texans on Sunday, raising their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 2 percent.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) had a bye last week. Their chances of making the playoffs stayed at 1 percent. They are on the cusp of being eliminated from playoff contention.
The Kansas City Chiefs (10-1) beat the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained greater than 99 percent. A win next week would clinch a playoff berth.
The Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) lost to the Baltimore Ravens on Monday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 89 percent.
The Denver Broncos (7-5) beat the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, boosting their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 62 percent.
The Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) lost to the Denver Broncos on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained less than 1 percent. They are on the cusp of being eliminated from playoff contention.
The Philadelphia Eagles (9-2) beat the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained greater than 99 percent. A win next week would clinch a playoff berth.
The Washington Commanders (7-5) lost to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, reducing their chances of making the playoffs to 74 percent.
The Dallas Cowboys (4-7) beat the Washington Commanders on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained 1 percent.
The New York Giants (2-9) lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained less than 1 percent. They are on the cusp of being eliminated from playoff contention.
The Detroit Lions (10-1) beat the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained greater than 99 percent. A win next week would clinch a playoff berth.
The Minnesota Vikings (9-2) beat the Chicago Bears on Sunday, raising their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 97 percent.
The Green Bay Packers (8-3) beat the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, increasing their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 95 percent.
The Chicago Bears (4-7) lost to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained less than 1 percent.
The Atlanta Falcons (6-5) had a bye last week, but their chances of making the playoffs dropped to 75 percent.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) beat the New York Giants on Sunday, increasing their chances of making the playoffs to 43 percent.
The New Orleans Saints (4-7) had a bye last week. Their chances of making the playoffs stayed at 3 percent.
The Carolina Panthers (3-8) lost to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained less than 1 percent.
The Arizona Cardinals (6-5) lost to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, reducing their chances of making the playoffs to 55 percent.
The Seattle Seahawks (6-5) beat the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, boosting their chances of making the playoffs to 35 percent.
The Los Angeles Rams (5-6) lost to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 16 percent.
The San Francisco 49ers (5-6) lost to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 6 percent.
How the {TEAM_CITY} {TEAM_NAME} Can Make the 2024 N.F.L. PlayoffsThrough Week {TEAM_WEEK}
Likeliest Playoff Positions
| SCENARIO | PROBABILITY |
|---|---|
| Bye week <1% | |
| Host wild card 51% | |
| Wild card 4% | |
| Out 45% |
End-of-Season Outcomes
| RecordChance this happens | Chance to make the playoffs |
|---|
Division Standings
| Record in Common Games |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Overall | Div. | {TEAM_NAME} | Opp. |
The Arizona Cardinals (6-5) lost to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, reducing their chances of making the playoffs to 55 percent.
The table below represents the Cardinals’ remaining games. Pick a winner and see what happens to the Cardinals’ playoff chances:
As you pick winners, the colors on some games will change, reflecting their relative importance. Explore other possibilities, like a first-round bye or a division title, right here:
The tables below represent every N.F.L. game remaining. Pick winners and explore which games matter most to the Cardinals’ chances.
With 93 games remaining, there are about 10 octillion different ways the N.F.L. regular season could end.
So we built this simulator. Most calculators force you to choose the winners of each remaining game. Here, you can choose the outcomes of just a few games and see how your team’s chances grow or shrink.
We estimate odds by randomly simulating the remainder of the season thousands of times and counting how often the Cardinals make the playoffs.
If you don’t specify an outcome for a particular game, we use an Elo rating system combined with information from betting markets to estimate each team’s chances of winning. (For simplicity, we assume each game has an equally small chance — one in 200 — of ending in a tie.)