Election 2024 Polls: New Hampshire
Election 2024 Polls: New Hampshire
New Hampshire polling average
It’s Election Day, and the polls show one of the closest presidential races in the history of American politics. Nationwide or across the key battlegrounds collectively, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald J. Trump leads by more than a single percentage point. Neither candidate holds a meaningful edge in enough states to win 270 electoral votes. In the history of modern polling, there’s never been a campaign where the final polls showed such a close contest. Updated Nov. 5
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While the overall result of our final Times/Siena polls is largely unchanged since our previous wave of battleground polls, there were some notable shifts. Surprisingly, the longstanding gap between the Rust Belt and Sun Belt battlegrounds narrowed considerably. The overall effect of these swings is somewhat contradictory — Harris’s position in the Electoral College isn’t necessarily improved. Updated Nov. 3
This chart shows how the polling margin in New Hampshire has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump.
The battleground states remain extraordinarily tight. With the race so close, it wouldn’t take much of a polling error to yield a different outcome. The polls are never exactly right; if they err one way or another by a point or two, as usual, then either side could win by a decisive margin. Updated Nov. 2
About our polling averages
Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.
We also evaluate whether each pollster: Has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsIs a member of a professional polling organizationConducts probability-based sampling
These elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be “select pollsters,” so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Read more about our methodology.
The Times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Siena College. Those polls are included in the averages. Follow Times/Siena polling here.
Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and a single electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district. (Maine has two congressional districts, and Nebraska has three.) Historical election results for these districts are calculated based on votes cast within the current boundaries of the district.
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.
Credits
By Cam Baker, Laura Bejder Jensen, Ademola Bello, Dana Chiueh, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar, Annie Daniel, Ruth Igielnik, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor and Isaac White. Additional work by Kristen Bayrakdarian, Asmaa Elkeurti, Andrew Fischer, Andrew Park, Jaymin Patel, Dan Simmons-Ritchie, Ethan Singer and James Thomas.